Tuesday, 23 January, 2018

Canadian officials see rising odds that Trump will leave NAFTA

The potential dismantling of the North American Free Trade Agreement poses the biggest risk to Canada's railways not benefiting this year from healthy economies and higher US likely to give 6 months' notice to withdraw from NAFTA, Bloomberg reports
Glenn Montgomery | 11 January, 2018, 09:34

Canadian officials are tamping down speculation that President TrumpDonald John TrumpHouse Democrat slams Donald Trump Jr. for "serious case of amnesia" after testimony Skier Lindsey Vonn: I don't want to represent Trump at Olympics Poll: 4 in 10 Republicans think senior Trump advisers had improper dealings with Russia MORE will soon withdraw the United States from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

"A primary discussion point was the negative impact a withdrawal would have on economic and stock market momentum", the report said.

The sixth round of NAFTA talks is set for January 23 in Montreal.

"Despite the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA and rumors Mexico wouldn't be able to continue exporting to the United States, it's important to note that not only did we hit a record in exports but we also had record export numbers to the United States with almost 10 percent growth", AMIA President Eduardo Solis said. "A US withdrawal from NAFTA would cost the USA pork industry $1.5 billion".

The US is expected to lead the otc pharmaceuticals industry in the NAFTA bloc, with a value of $32,806.2 million in 2019, followed by Canada and Mexico with expected values of $3,544.2 and $3,058.2 million, respectively.

A report earlier on Wednesday said that two government sources had expressed concern that Canadian officials were becoming convinced that Trump would leave the 24-year-old agreement.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was quick to label Canada's complaint as bad for the bilateral relationship.

Laura Dawson, the director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington, said it should come as no surprise that Trump is prepared to use the threat of withdrawal as a negotiating tactic.

Reports of NAFTA's possible demise, meanwhile, sent the Canadian and Mexican currencies tumbling, and the USA dollar rising from Can$1.2432 at 1200 GMT to Can$1.2554 at around 2030 GMT. They have so far yielded little firm indication of whether a deal can be reached to update the pact, the officials said. "The timing on this, while potentially unfortunate as we are in a trade negotiation with USA, but the WTO moves poisonously slowly", Dawson said of Canada's move. "When Mexico is making all of that money, when Canada is making all of that money, it's not the easiest negotiation". "But we're going to make it fair for you people again".

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