Monday, 19 November, 2018

Oil falls on US-China trade dispute

Oil rises ahead of OPEC, pressured by China tariffs Oil Drops in Choppy Trade Ahead of OPEC Meeting
Cristina Norman | 22 June, 2018, 16:14

It is said, though, that US and Saudi Arabia have been discussing ending the OPEC/non-OPEC pact long before this week's meeting and Saudi is going to propose what is in fact a USA -induced decision in Vienna. On one side, under the US influence [either in the form of alliance or sanctions] Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC-member Russian Federation, which had a significant role in reaching the deal, are said to be willing to ease the production cap and use some of their spare capacities.

The Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas and Skill Development & Entrepreneurship Dharmendra Pradhan will lead an official delegation to participate in the 7th OPEC International Seminar organised by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a special guest in Vienna, Austria from 19-20th June 2018.The visit comes at a crucial time when the global crude oil prices are at the highest since the peak of 2014.

But Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Monday note that despite an expected increase in OPEC output, weaker emerging market demand and a burgeoning trade war between the U.S. and China, the oil market remains in deficit. Russia, by far the largest non-member to join OPEC's cuts agreement, has said it would be happy with lower crude prices and appears keen to start up new fields.

Tokyo ended 0.8 percent down, while Singapore sank more than one percent, Seoul dropped 1.3 percent and Manila tumbled 2.5 percent. There is speculation that OPEC might undo a deal struck early previous year to limit crude production. The final decision needs to be unanimous for OPEC, however, and many analysts expect the meeting to be a disaster.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, which have curbed supplies since 2017, meet on Friday in Vienna, where they had been expected to come to a decision as to whether to increase global oil production, and by how much. If allocated proportionally among all members of the group, only about two-thirds of that volume is likely to flow to the market because countries including Venezuela and Mexico are unable to raise output.

Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela are opposed but according to reports there are signs of an agreement.

China takes around 20% of all USA crude exports, according to Wood Mackenzie. "This could make a huge dent in the USA bid to export oil", he added. Last week, US President Donald Trump, once again, reiterated that oil prices were too high. Several OPEC countries are not able to increase the production. OPEC output was last lower in April 2017 at 31.85 million b/d, the last month before West African producer Equatorial Guinea became its newest member.

"We believe that Opec will act like a central bank going forward, raising and lowering production as necessary with an objective of keeping global oil inventories at normal, five-year levels", Thummel said.

There are expectations for the oil cartel to consider altering a production deal that has held back 1.8 million bpd from the market for the past 18 months. If US oil finds it hard to enter China, it would try to find a way to sell in India, the other main consumer.

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